Military option focuses minds
The authorization that the Turkish Parliament has overwhelmingly given the government to order a military operation into northern Iraq in pursuit of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorists has the United States and Europe on edge. This is quite understandable because Turkey is known to carry out its warnings.
1974 is a case in point. Ankara felt legitimacy was on its side at the time, and despite strong words of caution, some amounting to open threats, the Turkish Armed Forces went to the Cyprus to prevent a massacre of Turkish Cypriots, as well as the island’s union with Greece in contravention of international agreements.
The irony this time around is that should Turkey decide on a military incursion into northern Iraq, it will have more legitimacy on its side than the U.S. had when it invaded Iraq. The fact that the PKK is using northern Iraq, and is staging attacks in Turkey against security forces and civilians, is an incontrovertible fact, unlike the debacle involving the weapons of mass destruction that Saddam was said to have.
It is also a fact that Turkey has been heeding Washington’s calls and showing maximum restraint over the past three years as far as the PKK in northern Iraq is concerned. But there is a point at which restraint comes to be seen as weakness by the adversary, and it is clear that Ankara could not let this business go on further. The fact that the PKK has increased its attacks recently makes this impossible for any self-respecting government.
On the other hand, the fact that the Erdoğan government has the authorization to order the military into northern Iraq does not mean that there is anything imminent. It seems that there will be a window of opportunity for diplomacy, especially after the hasty visit to Ankara by Iraq’s Deputy President Hashimi, and the emergency meeting in Baghdad headed by Prime Minister Maliki.
No doubt Ankara will wait to see what this translates into and use any opportunity that presents itself in this context that will make a military intervention unnecessary. Both Prime Minister Erdoğan and government spokesman Cemil Cicek have said openly that their desire is not to have to use the authorization provided by Parliament.
This puts the onus very much on the American side and Baghdad. Neither is in a position to deny that the PKK is using northern Iraq. Therefore neither can expect Ankara to exercise restraint forever. Turkey will not doubt wait now and see how the Americans and Baghdad plan to approach this issue.
Authorization: A new diplomatic instrument
Washington wants a revival of the tripartite talks including Turkey, Iraq and the U.S., and it seems Ankara may be more open to this now that it has become apparent to all just how serious Turkey is this time. Put another way, any tripartite mechanism established can no longer be one that is merely there to buy time for the Americans, Baghdad and the Iraqi Kurds. It has to provide concrete results.
The text of the authorization voted on in Parliament also spells out precisely what the mission of the Turkish military will be if it does go into northern Iraq. This is clearly designed to prevent speculation that Turkey has a broader agenda that also includes the Iraqi Kurds, even though the ultra nationalist opposition, be it the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) or the Republican Peoples Party (CHP), want Mr. Barzani and his peshmergas to be targeted also because of the support they are believed to be providing the PKK.
That will not happen of course, and the MHP and CHP are only trying to curry favor with their grass roots supporters while at the same time playing politics and trying to show the government weak in order to undermine the AKP, which gave them a crushing defeat in the general elections in July.
This authorization has in fact given the government a new diplomatic instrument in order to up the ante and get some movement against the PKK. The degree to which Turkey’s warnings are now being taken seriously all around goes to show that this instrument may prove to be useful.
But this should not be taken to mean that Ankara would not use this instrument militarily should the diplomatic side not provide any results. In fact it is this dimension of the equation that makes the diplomatic instrument that this authorization provides a very real one.