No turning back to Cold War era
American News Agency Associated Press filed a very interesting story few days after the funeral ceremony of the late President of Turkmenistan, Saparmurad Turkmenbashi. The story was about the strong presence of Turkey in the funeral, which was attended by a big delegation headed by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The story provided interesting details. For instance, most of the representatives of the foreign media had difficulties to get a Turkmen visa, whereas those applying from Turkey had no such difficulties. The news story also hinted to the beginning of a new relationship between Turkey and Turkmenistan.
In fact, Turkish officials attending the funeral were fairly optimistic about opening a new page in bilateral relations. The chances of reviving the Trans-Caspian pipeline project to transport Turkmen natural gas to Turkey look stronger. In addition to the positive approach of the United States, there were signs that the European Union might also support the project.
However, this optimistic mood did not last long when Turkmenistan’s new leader consented to building a new pipeline along the coast of the Caspian Sea to carry Central Asian gas to Russia. The leaders of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia sealed the agreement in a summit held a week ago, also agreeing to expand an existing gas pipeline to Russia, currently Central Asia’s only major gas export outlet.
The accords mark a major setback for the Transcaspian pipeline project. I am pretty sure the Russians are sitting back at their desk and congratulating each other how they “scored” on Turkey. How did we get to this point? The simple answer is this: Prime Minister Erdoğan came back from the funeral and the whole issue evaporated from the minds of the Turkish politicians, since the country began to slide into the presidential crisis. Meanwhile, Russian officials flooded the Turkmen capital.
Obviously, it would be an oversimplification to claim that Russians “scored on Turkey,” due to the fact that Turkey was too preoccupied with her domestic affairs. The fact is that Turkey, and actually the whole world, is facing a new reality: The rising power of Russia. The sick man of the post-Soviet era is surrendering its place to a superpower that claims its title of the Cold War. Energy is the real tool that Russia can rely on to assert itself in the post-Cold War era. Hence, securing Turkmen gas is vital for Russia in order to tighten Moscow’s control over energy routes of the region. Even if Turkey had played hardball, it’s not that certain it would have come out victorious from this competition.
Russia’s challenge to the West
Ironically, with the end of the Cold War and the fall of the iron curtain between Turkey and Russia, energy became a source for competition and cooperation between the two countries. Therefore, when we look to the current state of affairs, there is “nothing new in the northern front.”
It is a fact that Russia gained a strategic advantage through the new accords with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. However, the game is not over and those who give in early are doomed to loose.
Turkey has gained experience in this game. She knows the rules of the game.
What is new, however, for Turkey, and in fact for the rest of the world, is Russia’s initiatives that are upsetting the post-Cold War order. An increasingly self – confident Russia is not willing to play by the rules set by the Western world. Facing numerous convictions from the European Court of Human Rights due to abuses in Chechnya, Moscow does not hesitate to block the Court’s activity. Recently, President Vladimir Putin froze Russia’s compliance with the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe treaty (CFE) one of the key agreements that helped end the Cold War stand – off between NATO and the Soviet bloc. These moves reminiscent of the Cold War era, confirm a growing assertiveness from the Russian leader, who has caused widespread concern in the West. All these developments that ring alarm bells in European capitals, have not resonated too much in Turkey.
Embroiled in the internal turmoil, Turkish public opinion seems indifferent to those initiatives that are, in fact, directly related to Turkish national interests. Take the CFE for instance. Considered by the Turkish government as one of the cornerstones of disarmament, CFE is a vital issue for Turkey.
No return to Cold War relationship
Russia’s moves should be examined carefully and Turkey should fine-tune its strategy vis-à-vis her increasingly influential northern neighbor. One thing is for certain though: things have changed both at the northern front and at the western front; hence there is no turning back to Cold War between Ankara and Moscow. It is enough to look at the statistics at the Web site of the Undersecretary of Foreign Trade, or tourism, to appreciate this reality.
Furthermore, some of the steps undertaken by the United States seem to have triggered Russian reaction, like the U.S. plan to station elements of a missile shields in Poland and the Czech Republic, which has not received a warm welcome from Turkey either.
In short, a fascinating foreign policy agenda is awaiting the new government.