Northern Iraq according to the USAK Report -II
We are continuing to analyze the northern Iraq report of the Institute of International Strategic Researches (U.S.A.K.).
The significance of northern Iraq for PKK terror:
Ideological reason: The PKK is a terrorist organization playing for Kurdishness. It has Pan-Kurdish objectives. As the other Kurdish movements, they adopt a Pan-Kurdish attitude and are nourished by cross-border developments. For this reason, unless the political and economic problems of the Kurdish groups in Iraq, Syria and Iran are tackled, the PKK-like Kurdish movement will have an ideological ground in the region. The discourse of the PKK and other Kurdish movements is “Kurds are the biggest of peoples in the world without a state”.
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The Barzani-Talabani factor: On the other side of the ideological reason, there are irredentist dreams evolving in northern Iraq. Though still a controversy if it is a perpetual political entity, the Massoud Barzani group seeks for closure with Kurds and Kurdish movements in other countries. Significantly, they believe Turkey will become an utmost determining factor for the formation of a possible state. However, they have very few instruments to play against Turkey. These are: a) The United States, b) the PKK, and c) tenders. It has been proven so far that the PKK is the best way to convince Turkey in the region for anything and the Massoud Barzani-Jalal Talabani duo know this very well. So in this sense, the PKK is used as a trump card for keeping Turkey in suspense effectively.
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Iraqi Kurds: Kurds in Iraq have problematic lives and that affects Turkey inevitably. For Turkey, having problems with both Iraqi Kurds and groups in the country introducing themselves as representatives of Kurdish politics in particular weakens efforts to fight against terror. Terrorist organizations exploit the situation planting the image that Turkey and all Kurds are at odds.
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Logistic reason: The PKK that was about to collapse numerous times always found ways to pull itself upright in the north of Iraq. Northern Iraq is a central point of Turkey-Iran-Iraq and Syria and – unless a friendly force exists in this sensitive region – Turkey will be subjected to the most important dangers from this very same region. In addition to heavy PKK terror existing here today, the U.S. Iraq policy has turned the area into a center for religionist terror as well. In short, the region is the most crucial logistic support center for terror against Turkey.
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The Black point: The failure in establishing a satisfactory authority in the region by Iraq or the U.S. or local Kurdish groups serve as relatively safe havens for not just the PKK but also for the intelligence services of other countries and illegal organizations and gangs in Turkey. Now the region has been transformed into a place for bargaining by official and unofficial groups both from Turkey and from the outside. In brief, unless stability and authority is maintained in northern Iraq, this region will continue to be the bargaining place for shady businesses. And that means growing threats against Turkey or even international threats.
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Some other reasons are also listed in the report explaining the significance of northern Iraq for Turkey.
Tomorrow: We will continue with some middle and long-term suggestions that are also included in this significant study on northern Iraq.