PKK’s game is the government’s urgency
On the morning of the referendum on Sunday we woke up to the news of the bloody developments that took place in the southeastern province Hakkari. The public rage caused by the Gabar ambush by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) resulted in the parliamentary approval of a cross-border operation. But this time the wave of indignation is triggered by anguish. We are now at the point of no return; implementation of the motion is unavoidable. What we were afraid of is happening. I wrote the following last week after the bill was passed by Parliament:“As it is seen, we have reached a phase of ‘military operation scenarios’ by the parliamentary approval of the bill. But there is another possibility which is not uttered much often: The PKK soon may stage a few attacks similar to those killed 13 soldiers in Gabar recently and may escalate the violence, but to kill many this time.
“Such a development blows up all scenarios which we speculated above. On such an occasion, a ‘tsunami’ of rage in Turkish public opinion might very doubtfully prevent ‘pin-point operations’ planned for an unknown time frame and style.
“That necessitates a large-scale operation. It might be brought to the agenda that Turkey could cross mountains in northern Iraq and shift the border in an area of 20-40 kilometers in depth so as to form a new ’security border,’ as the late former prime minister, Bülent Ecevit, said some time ago.
“In fact, formation of a 20 kilometer ‘buffer zone’ by the Turkish Armed Forces was discussed in an agreement reached, but not enforced, before the March 1 deployment motion which was turned down by Parliament.”I think we have now reached the point of “such a development blows up all scenarios which we speculated above.”
Lebanon syndrome
This negative progress will inevitably cause the formation of the “Israel-South Lebanon; Turkey-Northern Iraq” equation. By invading Lebanon in 1978, Israel had formed a “security belt” and then reached the doors of Beirut, occupied South Lebanon.So the Hezbollah was born. And as a result of armed struggle against Israel, Jews had to leave south Lebanon “unilaterally” in 2000 after 18 years of occupation. However, the “unilateral,” namely, without taking part in any kind of agreement Israeli pull-out did not solve the problem. That made Hamas and the likes adopt the view of “brute force” as the only way and the only language Israel understands; therefore it either closed or dysfunctionalized all communication channels. That is to say, a “political-military” decision with the objective of eliminating terror by cross-border operations and by the feeling of that a long-term occupation in the area needed will affect all processes and you will end up with very different conclusions aimed at first. Israel’s adventure in South Lebanon is the best example.Almost everyone agrees that the PKK pushes Turkey for an occupation in northern Iraq. Some people believe this is a U.S. plan and some say it is a game of logic. Both are possible. It is argued that the PKK cannot do this alone so made a “game plan” with the help of some unknown “external forces.”Even more so, some say the arrogant statement the head of Kurdish administration in northern Iraq, Massoud Barzani, made on Sunday, the day of escalating tension due to the bloody terror attack in Hakkari as increasing the likelihood of a cross-border operation, proves how big and deep this game is.
Turkey should avoid playing this game
Under these circumstances, will Turkey play the “game” that it does not know what its scenario is all about inside?
It shouldn’t. However, while a cross-border motion has already been approved by Parliament and while the latest PKK attacks occurred 96 hours after the endorsement of this motion, the situation has reached a point that it cannot be explained by statements only.A “cross-border” operation by the Turkish military seems almost unavoidable. To contemplate the degree of this move now is not easy. Let’s hope that the fight against terror, despite everything, yes despite everything and despite its bloody potential and pain, could be maintained without losing touch with the “common sense” and without forgetting that this will be a long-term, multi-dimensional operation…