Turkey doesn’t want to, PKK pushes on…
The readers of this column will remember how I repeatedly underlined the same points: 1) A military operation into north Iraq was not a priority for Turkey, but settling the issue through diplomatic channels was 2) The PKK was doing its utmost to involve Turkey in north Iraq 3) A new attack would set off the implementation of the incursion motion, and that the PKK would do it. That’s exactly what happened. Turkey was at the brink of entering north Iraq when America stepped in and asked for respite. The game is over, and we are now on extension time. It’s the beginning of a new and long process.
The readers of this column are witnessing the confirmation of my repeated warnings. All it does is make me sad. I am not writing all this to take pride. Like many of my colleagues, I just want to say, “I wish Ankara had heeded the warnings.”
Let’s get to the current situation now. Turkey had no wish to intervene in Iraq until the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) night attack last Saturday. Better said, its priority was not to mount a military operation, but to use the approved motion as a “deterrent” in order to settle the issue without using arms.
The PKK must have felt this. Consequently, it took the expected steps and hit again. They knew that the public reaction would force the government and the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) to act.
In fact, they achieved the desired effect.
As Ankara was about the push the button, Washington stepped in and asked for a respite of a few days. In other words, the ball is now in America’s court. The statement that Talabani made Sunday evening announced the beginning of a waiting period. Turkey couldn’t have intervened in Iraq in spite of America. It became necessary to wait for a few days, and that’s what the government did.
I wonder what the PKK will do now. Will it remain inactive or will it continue to act and to sabotage? That is the biggest unknown factor. If they don’t change their behaviour, Turkey will intervene sooner or later. There is no other alternative.
What does Barzani and the PKK want to do?
My readers are aware of my views on the PKK’s objectives. The PKK is trying to force Turkey into entering north Iraq. The ideal situation for them would be for the TSK to start an expansive cross-border operation. Let’s see what the PKK would gain if a force of 30-35 thousand soldiers were to occupy North Iraq for a long period:- The relations between Turkey and America would be spoiled in an almost irreparable fashion.
- Turkey-EU relations would suffer to a great degree.
- Turkey would come under a lot of pressure from Arabic countries.
- The PKK would get the opportunity to launch a big campaign against Turkey in the southeast and to recapture its votes in the region.Let’s also take a look at Barzani’s attitude. On the surface, it may look as if we’re fighting the PKK. The real issue, however, is the independence of north Iraq. Barzani wants to appear as the leader of all the Kurds. That’s why he gives out the impression of defending the PKK. His other expectation is for Turkey to recognise him. He thinks that this and the PKK card would help him to get rid of Turkey’s opposition on the way to independence.
As for Talabani, he has a different approach. He is gripped by the dilemma to evaluate developments both as the president of Iraq and the leader of north Iraq. The conversation I had with him Sunday evening was a clear indication of his perplexity in this matter.
Now is the start of a brand new process. America has stepped in. Let’s see what it will do.
Erdoğan gets support once more…
PARTICIPATION: 67%
YES: 69%
NO: 31%
We’ve had a completely superfluous referendum. It would have been more practical to attach the contents of this referendum to the projected constitutional amendments in order to present them both to public approval in a single referendum, as many had advised to do. It was a mystery why the Justice and Development Party (AKP) had been so insistent to hold this referendum in the face of of the very justified objections. Public interest was low. Calculations said that participation would fall below 50 percent. The Republican People’s’ Party (CHP) and many NGOs asked the public to boycott the referendum. Only Erdoğan asked the public to vote YES in a half-hearted campaign. The results surprised us once more. Evidently, Erdoğan still has a lot credit with the voters. A 67% participation is high by international standards, and a 69% YES allows no arguments. However, why had Erdoğan been so insistent? I was curious, so I asked.Cemil Çiçek did not hide the fact that they had needed this referendum at least in order to get rid of the 367 rule and to get over the presidential election handicap, since they were not sure about the fate of the new constitution. He might not have said it very clearly or loudly, but he admitted it during private chats.
They got what they wanted. The time credit granted by the public to the AKP continues.