Turkey should stay the course - despite Sarkozy
Will the German Chancellor Merkel and French President - elect Sarkozy propose an alternative to European Union (EU) membership to Turkey? “If the Capadocians claim they are Europeans, they won’t dare,” was the answer of Turkish Industrialists and Business Men’s Association (TÜSİAD) Brussels Representative Bahadır Kaleağası who was in Turkey last week to attend Forum Istanbul.
He was referring to Sarkozy’s statements on a television debate before the elections implying that Capadocians do not belong to EU. The election of Nicolas Sarkozy as the president was received by a surprising optimism in Turkish press. “Merkel changed, so will Sarkozy,” said a headline of one Turkish newspaper.
Did Merkel really change? How about Sarkozy; after all his anti – Turkish rhetoric will his views change?
According to Pierre Rousselin, Deputy Managing Editor of the French Daily Le figaro, who also in Turkey attending Forum Istanbul, the comparison between Sarkozy and Merkel, is not relevant. “In contrast to Merkel, who is in a coalition with the Social Democrats who are not opposing Turkish membership, Sarkozy is in a different situation,” said Rousselin. “I expect the French right to win the general elections in June,” he added. One of the reasons why the French picked Sarkozy was probably their quest for a strong-minded leader who has the courage to implement radical decisions and their perception of Sarkozy as the right one for that kind of leadership. Hence, the French will prefer to give him a clear mandate rather than make his life difficult by voting for a “co – habitation,” a right – left coalition.
Der Spiegel’s Foreign News Editor Manfred Ertel is also of the view that Merkel had to soften her stance due to her coalition partners.
Another reason for Merkel feeling obliged to fine tune her policy is the existence of the Turkish community, which is notable if compared with the one in France. A vigorous anti – Turkish rhetoric would strain relations with Turkey and have a spill over effect on the Turkish community in Germany. Something quite undesirable for the German government that does not want additional headaches, while facing tremendous challenges in trying to integrate the Turks living in Germany.
That’s why neither Merkel nor any power center in Germany with common sense can push for the total expulsion of Turkey from the orbit of the European Union. And that’s why we hear Merkel talking about attaching Turkey more closely to Europe whatever the circumstances are.
Did she change? No she did not. Probably she got panicked. When Turkey started to send signals of instability, the reaction was, “we cannot loose Turkey, she needs to be anchored more strongly to Europe.” And when everything goes to the right direction in Turkey and Turkish accession process speeds up, then there is a reverse kind of panic: “Turkey might end up as a member, but she is not a real European.” That is the paradox of Europe, neither can they dare to take Turkey in nor can they afford to loose her.
So, Merkel did not change. Will Sarkozy change? According to the French journalist Rousselin, the chances are dim. “But, he has other priorities. I do not expect him to rush to stop the Turkish accession process,” he said.
Now that we have two leaders meeting each other face to face and discussing Turkey, on top of the two most influential governments within the EU, what will they do? Will they push for a privileged partnership as Merkel suggests or a “prominent role in a Mediterranean Union,” as Sarkozy mentioned?
According to Bahadır Kaleağası, Germany and France will not want to fall into a position whereby they would be accused of excluding Turkey. They would rather try to push Turkey to the point where she will get frustrated and ask for the special relationship. “The Franco-German alliance will look for opportunities to sell the idea of a special relationship to the Turkish public. If the Turkish side gives the impression that they can accept it, then they will not miss the opportunity,” said Kaleağası.
Seems plausible. Actually the first attempt is already here. Apparently, Alain Lamassoure, an advisor to Sarkozy, did not waste any time to tell a French Internet site that Sarkozy will keep its word and stop the Turkish accession process.
The Turkish people should be prepared for such statements, which most likely aim at irritating them. If Turkey will give the message that it will not deviate from the path towards the EU, it will be hard for so called Turkey skeptics to reach their goals. And let’s not forget that there is a sizeable bloc in the EU, which will oppose an unfair treatment of Turkey.