We better take Sarkozy seriously and formulate new policies
The new French government will continue to do what was done so far: to carry the negotiation process, which is limped by the salient contributions of the Turkish government, to the point of ‘falling apart’.
Some observers in Turkey and France keep saying that the newly elected French President Nicolas Sarkozy who is against Turkey’s European Union (EU) bid since late 2004, will change his attitude toward Turkey. Some talk about acquaintances but most of them explain the future change with Sarkozy’s coming to the power. That is, a change for which Turkey should not do anything about and will fall from the sky. For those who believe that when one comes to power, he or she changes and the best example is German Chancellor Angela Merkel. But since Merkel came to the power, no development has taken place to indicate that she has changed her mind about Turkey’s membership to the EU. The situation France and the EU face today means that we better take Sarkozy’s attitude seriously. Let’s see who in the new team would have some effect on our relations with the EU?
French FM and Minister for EU Affairs Bernard Kouchner
Bernard Kouchner is from the Socialist Party, which is not against Turkey’s EU bid. However, we should not forget that the Foreign Affairs in France are president’s ‘reserved domain’. Moreover, influence of a foreign minister who is from a different party is next to nothing. In this frame, Kouchner becomes a tool in Sarkozy’s hands to guarantee winning the legislative elections in June by forming a government of a broad range political spectrum. Kouchner is the co-founder of the Doctors Without Borders and with Italian Mario Bettati he developed the concept of the ‘droit d’ingérence’ (intervention right) to intervene in internal affairs of anti-democratic countries where dictatorships, genocide, torture, massive deportation was the rule. He always had an eye on ambitious international positions. However, he has never weighed enough to become a foreign minister in previous socialist governments nor has he significant power in the party. From now on, Kouchner will have nothing to do with socialists and will represent himself only.
Jean-Pierre Jouyet, State Secretary for EU Affairs
Jean-Pierre Jouyet was the former Undersecretary for Treasury, Chief of Staff to former Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, Chief of Staff to former EU Commission President Jacques Delors and a social democrat leaning bureaucrat with extensive experience in the French business world and administration. He is expected to be useful in the government for the new treaty that the EU needs desperately. But no one should expect that Jouyet would toe the line set by Sarkozy when it comes to Turkey. His close ties with the business world could have some influence over France’s Turkey approach.In parallel with this team, Sarkozy inspired by the U.S. and other NATO countries and formed a National Security Council first time attached to the Presidency. He appointed Jean-David Levitte, former French Ambassador to Washington, as the chief of the council. Close to former President Jacques Chirac Levitte is a seasoned bureaucrat in international relations. Though he is not a EU expert, he knows the meaning of international equilibrium very well.In the new French government, there is no name who pondered extensively about Turkey’s membership and the enlargement policy. Jouyet knows much about the EU, but he is rather an expert in economic and financial issues. Sarkozy’s closest advisers on Turkey were Alain Lamassoure and Patrick Devedjian. They were expected to become ministers, but did not happen. Not to have an expert such as Lamassoure in the government is both good and bad. It is good because the government would act without prejudice. It is bad because the government would be open to the influence of the boss, Sarkozy. On the other side, Devedjian’s assignment as the secretary general in Sarkozy’s party, Union for Popular Movement is not a positive development in Turkey’s terms.
What could it be done?
Number one priority of the new French government regarding the EU is a new treaty. The enlargement issue is not of an emergency nature for France nor for other EU countries. The new French government is perfectly aware of not being able to convince other member states to call off negotiations with Turkey, so they will continue to do what was done so far. That is to carry the negotiation process, which is limped by the salient contributions of the Turkish government, to the point of “falling apart”. Meanwhile, some will try to fill the old and new empty shells, i.e. ‘the privileged partnership’ and ‘the Mediterranean Union’, floated by Sarkozy, which is mainly aimed at the prevention of influx of migrants from the southern Mediterranean. In accordance, the French government will maintain and even strengthen bilateral relations with Turkey and ignore the multilateral relationships. In the short-run, France will have to send two messages to Turkey: Its attitude toward three chapters which are expected to be opened by the end of June during Germany’s EU term presidency and who the new ambassador will be, in replacement of the current one who is about to be retired.On the other side, Turkey that has never worried about the shaky course of membership negotiations will determine its approach by the new government to be formed after the July 22 general elections. If Turkey comes to its senses and if the EU works are rekindled, a resolute policy line needs to be followed in order to stand against France and other member countries’ tactics to slow down negotiations with Turkey.
At first, Turkey should make as clear as possible that talks such as “Turkey is in Asia, therefore it cannot be European Union member” are so short of an explanation that they do not befit the new president’s plans to make France a respected country in the world. The second is, if we continue from where we left in the EU talks, a renewed political will, a new structure for negotiations and a renewed public confidence ought to be put in practice. Turkey. Thirdly, ‘2023′ needs to be pronounced by EU as a reasonable accession date as soon as possible. For this, the most appropriate timing would be right after the European Parliament elections scheduled for June 2009, as by that time, the new treaty would most likely be ratified. Plus, it is not forbidden for Turkey’s friends to utter an accession date individually from now on.