What should be done or avoided to enter Iraq
The International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO) had first prepared a report on Iraq last year. It has updated the report and it recently distributed the updated version.
I have never encountered a more thorough and detailed report on Iraq before. The NGOs are full of unknowledgeable people that voice the opinions of an ideology.
The ISRO, lead by Professor Sedat Laçiner has done exactly the opposite.
It is a report prepared with two-and-a-half-years of work. They have interviewed more than 100 experts on security, law, international relations, and scholastic topics. It is quite an accomplishment to have this on a subject for which such little information exists.
As I have written the summary you are about to read, I take all responsibility for any mistakes or misunderstandings.
The observations
- The PKK terrorizes Turkey. Though the events are not as grave as they were during the 1990s, there is considerable tension in the public. The PKK uses northern Iraq as a base and shelter to train, rest, and arm its teams.
- The public increasingly believes that a military intervention into northern Iraq will end the PKK terror and the public pressures on for an intervention.
- There are confused discussions. The aim of a trans-border operation are not defined and an impression exists that the operation may overflow from the PKK camps.
- There is lack of confidence, communication, and coordination as well as differences in opinion among the organizations that will carry out the duty, should a trans-border operation be necessary.
- Public dispute between leaders causes the public to become hopeless as well as revive the PKK teams.
- However successful it may be, a trans-border operation would not solve the PKK terror or the Kurdish issue. Because the cause of the problem is not northern Iraq.
- Neither the domestic not the international public is ready for a trans-border operation. On the other hand, the expectation of the public has been increasing. Furthermore, the front becomes wider instead of narrowing down.
- As Turkey has not received support from the international arena, even from its allies, its militaristic image grows stronger, benefiting the Armenians and the Greeks.
- Economic embargoes, such as closing the Habur border gate and cutting off electricity, can be applied only once and its effectiveness is limited.
- As long as the conditions above are kept as they are, getting involved in a trans-border operation carries risks, if it is not possible.
What are the risks?
- A trans-border operation may also fuel the PKK terror, merging northern Iraq and Southeastern Turkey into one region, and cause Kurdish-nationalism to become even more popular. It may create an impression that Turkey is acting against all Kurds and the Barzani-lead Kurdish-nationalism may become widespread. It may cause the Kurds, who have been observing from a distance, to become closer with the PKK.
- The operation may be seen as being against all of Iraq and may cause not only the Kurds, but also the Sunnis and Shiites to react against Turkey.
- An attempt against Iraq may be seen as occupation of an Arab country by the Arab world and cause reaction among them.
- Turkey’s intervention may be regarded with doubt by Iran, enticing them to be involved in the operation, which may cause a war in the whole of the region.
- If an operation is conducted without first agreeing with the U.S., it may lead to a misunderstanding that Turkey is swallowing Iraq. This may increase the support for the PKK in the international arena, and cause Turkey to come up against the U.S. This is the scariest scenario.
- An operation without predetermined targets and support from our allies would deal a major blow to the Turkish economy and detach it from the European Union and the Western world in general. Turkey may become Middle Eastern and this is one of the biggest risks involved.
- It should be kept in mind that death toll might be high, both amongst the civilians and the Turkish military.
What should be done?
- The short, middle, and long-term goals of the operation should be well planned. Diplomacy should be employed to agree with our allies and countries in the region.
- Acting with Iran in an operation to the Kandil Mountain will increase the PKK’s damage and send important messages to the Barzani-Talabani duo.
- Turkey should become a country that helps northern Iraq become richer. Turkey’s long-term goal should be to form a structure that it is friendly with.
- Maximum attention should be applied to ensure the operation is not taken to other channels and cause intervention from international organizations.