Will Erdogan ask ‘the nation’ if Turkey should invade Iraq?
Fortunately, this time, Mr. Erdoğan’s crooked understanding of democracy will do good for Turkey. A full-scale military incursion into northern Iraq no matter what the specified operational objectives might be is not a good idea.
The House of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been very keen on going for the “nation’s will” in controversial matters including the ban on the Islamic turban, or how many years governments should be elected, or if the Turkish president should have a second term.
In an ideal world of politics – which surely does not exist — one would expect the Turkish government to use the same methodology for a perfect democratic choice over whether Turkey should indefinitely invade parts of Iraq to fight the PKK and/or other hostile elements. Of course, “asking the Turks about an invasion” will never happen, since democratic rule through “nation’s will” in reality means “nation’s will as long as it serves to advance the political goals of the ruling elite.” Mission Iraq is not one of them.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been very big on “nation’s will” as evidenced by his numerous references to this holy concept during the presidential election and the constitutional overhaul. There has rarely been a speech he made without the blessed pair of words “nation” and “will” coming one after the other this year.
Of course, this year’s other favorite word is “direct democracy,” or in Mr. Erdoğan’s language, “the nation should be able to decide how political affairs should shape up.” We know Mr. Erdoğan thinks the “nation” should be able to elect the president. It’s fine.
Would Mr. Erdoğan, then, think of asking the “nation” whether the Turkish military should indefinitely invade northern Iraq, a decision apparently not less critical than electing a largely symbolical head of state? Would a “direct vote” over Iraq not be perfectly democratic?
Conditions worse than inappropriate
Fortunately, this time, Mr. Erdoğan’s crooked understanding of democracy will do well for Turkey. A full-scale military incursion into northern Iraq no matter what the specified operational objectives might be is not a good idea. Apparently, the PKK wants to drag the Turkish military en masse into the big unknown that is northern Iraq. The political and operational conditions are worse than inappropriate for what would amount to a “mission bigger trouble” with a capped “b” and a “t.”
The options
Mr. Erdoğan is right in being quite reluctant to give the go-ahead although he has had to show “his dear nation” that his government was not just sitting and unwinding, but was doing something to fight the PKK in view of increased violence. Similarly, the generals too are right in being privately cautious to the idea of “Iraq ahoy!”
A face-saving formula could be bombing rocks and mountains and valleys and present it to the public like a massive offensive against the PKK, and hence a big victory. The media would jump into any action and love to tell their already impatient audience stories of thousands of PKK casualties when in fact there would be not more than a dozen of them.
A separate and/or parallel idea could be to create tiny buffer zones on select parts of the Iraqi border, or rather innocent, tiny incursions or shelling rocks and mountains and valleys, or flying serious warplanes to bomb whatever is handy in Iraqi territory. That, too, would partly soothe the PKK-hate. A wiser idea could be to toughen the PKK fight in Turkish territory, both through military and non-military means including the judiciary.
An alternative, of course, is to wait for the PKK’s usual quiet season and rely on the always absent-minded Turkish public – a silent month or so will ensure PKK fading away from Turkish memories at least temporarily. Ankara may always fine-tune a blend of these options, too. Things may look even better if the Americans support a “mild” Turkish game plan by making a few gestures to please Ankara over the PKK, gestures that they have long been expected to make.
We can safely guess that a full-scale incursion would not be a remedy, militarily and politically. It may also cause fresh spillover losses, in addition to the daily death toll. We can also safely guess that there would not be an immediate miracle solution to finish off what several governments and military chiefs have failed to finish off in more than two decades. Fortunately, despite the increasing public pressure – which is understandable – Turkish leadership, civilian and military do not seem to forcefully rush into a risky adventure.
This is not a moment for irrational decisions. It’s time for otherwise hostile men of importance in Ankara to sit down and craft a plan to switch from conventional warfare against the asymmetrical threat into smart warfare. Coffins wrapped in the Crescent and Star are no doubt too bad. But more coffins have never meant losing the war. There is a sad status quo in the war with the PKK: There are no losers apart from the dead men on either side, or no winners, a kind of bizarre and eternal “draw.” Or is the Turkish leadership playing for an eternal draw?